Hezbollah Expected to Win More Seats in Lebanese Parliament: Analyst
“It remains hard to predict how the new system of voting with its new proportional representation, redrawn districts and preferential votes will affect the outcome (of the vote),” Marwa Osman told IQNA, adding, though, that several experts believe Hezbollah, through affiliated parties and candidates, could significantly increase its share of seats in parliament.
Dr. Osman is a university lecturer at the Lebanese International University as well as Maaref University. She is a former host of al-Etejah English Channel’s “The Middle East Stream” political show. She is a member of the Blue Peace Media Network and unusually comments on the Middle East on several international and regional media outlets including RT, Press TV, Al-Manar, and Al-Alam. Osman also contributes to several news websites, including Modern Diplomacy, Shafaqna, and Italian Insider.
Following is the full text of the interview:
IQNA: Lebanon is heading for its first parliamentary elections in nine years. Today, more than 3.6 million registered voters in the country will be eligible to choose from among 583 candidates competing for 128 parliamentary seats. The candidates are spread across 77 lists in 15 districts, which have 27 sub-districts. What is your idea about the elections?
Osman: With much of the Middle East either in violent conflict or under dictatorships, Lebanon is holding genuine elections today and it is the first of its kind for us as the electoral law is a new one. The most important aspect of these elections is that Lebanon will again have a more legitimate parliament after the elections which were due in 2013 got postponed a number of times. Unlike the former winner takes all system, the new law will see proportional representation implemented for the first time in Lebanon. A very important second aspect of these elections is that voting is taking place on a single day, instead of spread across multiple days, and using a new biometric voting card, leaving less room for electoral mischief.
A lot of changes were made with the new electoral law which will increase the transparency of these elections like ballots will now be preprinted, giving individuals more genuine freedom of choice in the voting booth when until now, Lebanese voters largely brought their own ballots with them to polls that political organizers or family elders had often handed them. And a vibrant change was that which allowed Lebanese expatriates to vote absentee from overseas. Some Lebanese feared that the millions of Lebanese overseas, who don’t have to contend with the day-to-day travails of life in the country, could dramatically alter election results by voting for traditionalist parties, but many others like me for one strongly felt it was their right to vote even if they were permanently residing overseas.
All of the above for many Lebanese citizens is good news since these new reforms will mean less corruption and more genuine expression of voter preferences for new candidates that in many cases represent reform agendas.
IQNA: The Arab country’s resistance movement Hezbollah is also a political party and currently sits in parliament. Headed by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, it leads March 8 bloc. Recently, the sectary general of Hezbollah said his group seeks a clean and fair election as the Arab country gears up for the legislative vote. Will Hezbollah secure its seat in the parliament again?
Osman: Unlike the former winner takes all system, the new law will see proportional representation implemented for the first time in Lebanon. This new hybrid voting system combines a form of district-based proportional representation, where voters select first for a slate of candidates, with a preferential voting system where voters select their top pick from that slate. Voters should thus have a clearer choice between the policies of slates of candidates, and the individual candidates themselves within those slates.
While no single bloc claimed dominance and the final agreement left out several major points called for by certain parties, it was praised as the first fully home-grown electoral law. It remains hard to predict how the new system of voting with its new proportional representation, redrawn districts and preferential votes will affect the outcome.
However, analysts and experts who looked at the text soon after it was published said they expect to see the share of seats decrease somewhat for many of the major parties. With the reduction expected to be largely uniform across the spectrum, it hasn’t been treated as a significant loss by the major blocs. That said, several experts believe Hezbollah, through affiliated parties and candidates, could significantly increase their share of seats in parliament.
Indeed Hezbollah is Lebanon’s most powerful political movement and it has continued its long-standing electoral coordination with the Amal Movement as the “Hope and Loyalty” list. Hezbollah’s status as the only Lebanese party with an active resistance against the Zionist enemy and its Takfiri proxies in Syria and Lebanon are contentious issues within Lebanon’s political sphere and a major part of how voters will cast their ballots. Most of these voters believe voting for Hezbollah is a national and moral duty for all the sacrifices the resistance has made to keep our country safe and secure at a time when the entire region is stricken with terrorism. Add to that Sayyed Nasrullah’s promise to return the focus of the resistance to domestic issues, which have traditionally been a strong point for the party, which built much of its support by providing services to under-served communities across the country.
IQNA: What is your prediction for the election result?
Osman: Though it is hard to say that major changes in the Lebanese political spectrum will result from these elections as the new electoral law still secures the return of many old and powerful political parties in the parliament, the fate of non-traditional politicians today will provide insight into the condition of sectarianism in Lebanon after 9 years. Will the new wave of illiberal democratic environment of Lebanon prevail? The fate of these non-traditional parties/movements/politicians is significant for another reason. Lebanon is a microcosm of the Middle East, many of the conflicts and tensions of the region occur in Lebanon. Today’s results will also provide a glimpse into the political climate of the greater Middle East.
